Lula set to double down on Global South leadership

Much attention has focused on the domestic implications of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s historic reelection last month. However, the foreign policy implications could also be significant.

A win for Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro would have seen a reassertion of the paramountcy of ties with the US under President Donald Trump, the country to which Bolsonaro has now exiled himself. One key goal would have been trying to reduce the range of US tariffs on Brazil.

Amid a political shift rightward in South America in recent years, Bolsonaro may well have sought to copy some of the playbook of Argentine President Javier Milei. Since assuming office in 2023, Milei has boosted ties with Trump and formally declined Argentina’s invitation to join the BRICS+ club.